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Orderly Predict is a market on BTC, settled every 5 minutes, where you trade on whether the price finishes a round up or down. You can place a trade well before a round’s 5-minute decision window starts — see Rounds and Settlement for when a round opens. This page explains how UP and DOWN trades work, how their prices relate to each other, and how Orderly Predict differs from perpetual futures.

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How UP and DOWN prices work

When you trade on Orderly Predict, you’re paying a cost per share for a payout that depends on the round’s outcome, not buying a direct read on probability.
  • If UP is priced at $0.57, you pay $0.57 per share. If BTC finishes the round higher than the round’s strike, each share pays $1 — a $0.43 gain before trading fees.
  • If your side loses, the share pays out $0, and the $0.57 you paid is gone.
  • If the round ties, every share — UP and DOWN alike — pays out $0.50.
  • Because ties settle at $0.50, a price is not the same as the probability that BTC finishes higher.
A trading fee applies when your order fills; see Orderly Predict fees. There’s no separate fee when a round settles.

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UP and DOWN are two sides of one trade

Every round has exactly one outcome: UP, DOWN, or a tie. They aren’t two separate markets — they’re two views of the same trade.
  • For any single fill, the DOWN price is $1 minus the UP price. The two prices you see on screen can add up to slightly more than $1; see Prices shown are prices you can trade at.
  • Your position shows as UP or DOWN, depending on which side you bought.
  • Because the two sides mirror each other, there’s a single order book for UP, and the DOWN price is derived from it.

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Prices shown are prices you can trade at

The UP and DOWN prices you see are executable prices, not a mid-price:
  • The UP price shown is the best price you could buy UP at right now.
  • The DOWN price shown is the best price you could buy DOWN at right now.
Because both sides are quoted at the price you’d actually trade at, UP + DOWN usually add up to slightly more than $1 — the difference is the market’s spread, not an error. In thin markets, the gap can be wider.

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No leverage, no liquidation, no funding

Orderly Predict works differently from perpetual futures:
  • No leverage. Every position is fully collateralized; there’s nothing to borrow.
  • No liquidation. Because positions are fully collateralized up front, there’s no maintenance margin to fall below and nothing to liquidate.
  • No funding. Rounds settle within minutes, so there’s no funding rate.

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Availability

Whether Orderly Predict is available depends on the app you trade on — Builders choose whether to enable it for their users. Check the terms of the app you’re trading on before you trade, or see Builders for the current list. Orderly Predict is also subject to its own Supplemental Terms and is not offered to US Persons or Restricted Persons.